Friday, 5 September 2014

Why Novak Djokovic is better Clay court player than Roger Federer


Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are two of the most established player in tennis world. Both are multiple times grand slam champion. Roger is perhaps the greatest tennis player of all time and Djokovic is also becoming tennis legend. Still, they both share one common trait, their inability to dominate clay courts. This definitely has one reason that the greatest clay courter of all time, Rafael Nadal, has dominated every single person on clay court. His legend on this surface is mythical. When a guy can count his losses in last 10 years on fingers, others cease to exist.

This is a linkAll of Nadal clay court losses for 10 years

But today we are not going to talk about Nadal's legendary clay court career. Instead, we are going to compare Federer and Djokovic's clay court legacy and why is Djokovic better clay courter than Djokovic. They are both very very close in terms of career clay court achievement so this is going to be very close encounter. Also, the fact that Federer is 6 years older than Djokovic, he will be more accomplished player.

Now, ignoring the elephant in the room is pointless, and that's obviously Roland Garros aka French Open. Because of the slow-playing surface and the five-set men's singles matches without a tiebreak in the final set, the event is widely considered to be the most physically demanding tennis tournament in the world.
Roger Federer won this tournament in 2009. Novak Djokovic has not won it although he has come very close.
Rafael Nadal has always been a threshold that neither Federer nor Djokovic could cross. On these grounds, he becomes a tennis god. Nadal has beaten Federer 5/5 times at Roland Garros. If that is bad, he has beaten Djokovic 6/6 times at Roland Garros. Its pretty clear that path to Roland Garros goes through Nadal. So, how did Federer win his title? An unheralded player took the four time defending champion out causing perhaps biggest upset of all time to give Federer easier path. Although, he did beat 7 players, he never defeated Nadal. -
Massive edge goes to Federer


Federer was 27 years and 10 months old when he won French Open. Andre Aagassi won at 29. Djokovic is still 27. He has time on his side.
Now, as we have established, beating Nadal at French Open is almost impossible, next feat would be reaching final. Federer has made 4 finals, while Djokovic has just 2. But Federer has only 2 semis while Djokovic has 4. Now, due to protected ranking, Federer met Nadal only once in semifinal. While Djokovic met him 3/4 times. Naturally, Djokovic final count is lower. Still, he is 27 and has more time to prove.
If Djokovic ever achieves French Open, the edge goes to Djokovic. 

Now, moving away from french open, there are other elite tournaments on clay. Particularly masters 1000 which are next best thing to slams. Federer has 6 masters while Djokovic has 5. Keep in mind, Djokovic is still 6 years younger. Djokovic has won all the clay masters beating Nadal in the final and even ended Nadal's 8 year long reign at Monte Carlo. Federer has won Hamburg and Madrid (fast surface, where Nadal is most vulnerable).
Edge goes to Djokovic.

Federer has 10 total clay titles and 24 finals. Djokovic has 9 total clay titles and 16 finals. Djokovic can win at least 3 to 4 titles and few more finals in 6 years.
Clearly edge goes to Djokovic.

Djokovic trumps Federer on french open winning % - 80.76 to 80.26
Djokovic also trumps Federer on overall clay winning % - .783 to .764.
Winning % are related to age. Once you get older, winning %s goes down. But Djokovic has distinct case of being very unfit in his initial career. So, whatever happens, these records will not change drastically.
Edge goes to Djokovic.

What about Record against the best clay player ie. Rafa Nadal? Federer has compiled 2/13 win loss record over Nadal. While Djokovic has 4/14 record against Nadal. While both records are pretty bad, its really hard to beat Nadal on his favorite surface. Djokovic is the player with most wins against Nadal on clay and he is constant threat. Federer on the other hand can never better his 2 win records ever again.
This is a link - This was an article published in 2008, 6 years ago and it still holds true.

For 2 seasons, Djokovic has gone as favorite over Nadal at French Open. Federer always has been in the shadows of Nadal. While Federer has only been able to collect scraps remaining in clay season, Djokovic has been a force to be reckoned for past 4 years. Best is yet to come.

And finally to the basisc, their playing styles.
27 of last 46 french opens are won by double handers. Of the 19 won by single handers, many are from pre-80 era where single hander was the norm, but its not today. Federer being a single hander has few problems facing many players. He wins with his other strengths like movement and serve. But innate weakness is always there.

Roger Federer is an attacking player, one of the players still active from serve and volley generation. He used single handed backhnad to slice and volley. He has dominated grass courts, which suits his play. He has dominated fast hard courts. He is built more on attacking technique than on stamina. Its not to say, he doesn't have stamina. Some of the best single handed players, McEnroe, Sampras, Becker, Edberg could never dominate clay courts.
Novak Djokovic on the other hand is modern day definition of tennis player. Djokovic is physical beast who can play for hours. He is a baseliner who can play 20-30-40 shot rallies for hours. He has one of the best double handed backhands which helps him neutralize rallies and counterplay. Two of the biggest clay courters, Nadal and Borg were both baseliners with double handed backhands who can play for hours. There is stark difference between Djokovic and Federer while facing Nadal on clay, which shows who belongs more on clay courts.

To conclude, Djokovic is overall slightly better than Federer at comparable age. But he hasn't won the biggest prize on clay courts, Roland Garros. Until he wins it, Federer will be better clay courter than him. But Novak is just at the threshold of greatness.